Kelvin Gastelum
21-10-0
VS
Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
Thin UFC data
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
22.7%
77.3%
Yousri Belgaroui
LightGBM
30.4%
69.6%
Yousri Belgaroui
Logistic (Core)
34.8%
65.2%
Yousri Belgaroui
CatBoost
32.9%
67.1%
Yousri Belgaroui
Ensemble
currently viewing
26.0%
74.0%
Yousri Belgaroui
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Kelvin Gastelum
Yousri Belgaroui
16%
10%
9%
6%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Kelvin Gastelum
pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Kelvin Gastelum
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
12.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
SUB
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Yousri Belgaroui
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
12.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
198 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kelvin Gastelum
ADVANTAGE
Yousri Belgaroui
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate