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Erin Blanchfield
"Cold Blooded"
14-2-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius
14-4-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Erin Blanchfield 'Cold Blooded'
75.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.2% 23.8%
Erin Blanchfield
LightGBM
74.7% 25.3%
Erin Blanchfield
Logistic (Core)
76.3% 23.7%
Erin Blanchfield
CatBoost
73.7% 26.3%
Erin Blanchfield
Ensemble
75.7% 24.3%
Erin Blanchfield
No Age · CatBoost
64.2% 35.8%
Erin Blanchfield
No Age · Ensemble
67.9% 32.1%
Erin Blanchfield
No Age · LightGBM
65.4% 34.6%
Erin Blanchfield
No Age · Logistic (Core)
64.2% 35.8%
Erin Blanchfield
No Age · XGBoost
67.0% 33.0%
Erin Blanchfield
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
71.5% 28.5%
Erin Blanchfield
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble currently viewing
75.1% 24.9%
Erin Blanchfield
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
74.0% 26.0%
Erin Blanchfield
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
75.5% 24.5%
Erin Blanchfield
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
79.7% 20.3%
Erin Blanchfield
With Odds · CatBoost
56.4% 43.6%
Erin Blanchfield
With Odds · Ensemble
62.0% 38.0%
Erin Blanchfield
With Odds · LightGBM
60.3% 39.7%
Erin Blanchfield
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
76.3% 23.7%
Erin Blanchfield
With Odds · XGBoost
60.2% 39.8%
Erin Blanchfield
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
68%
Decision
13%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision68.4%
KO / TKO13.1%
Submission18.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 138.5%
Round 241.1%
Round 3+20.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 32% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Erin Blanchfield
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -10.17
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.25
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 37
7%
Age
Jasmine Jasudavicius 37.6 yrs
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jasmine Jasudavicius -0.94
6%
Age
Erin Blanchfield 27.5 yrs
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Erin Blanchfield 4.04
4%
Total control time conceded
Erin Blanchfield 75.74
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Erin Blanchfield 4.16
4%
Total control time conceded
Jasmine Jasudavicius 55.89
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.04
4%
Avg control time
Jasmine Jasudavicius 119.62
3%
Control time conceded
Jasmine Jasudavicius 57.45
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Erin Blanchfield 1042.00
3%
← pushes toward Erin Blanchfield pushes toward Jasmine Jasudavicius →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Erin Blanchfield

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
16.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Erin Blanchfield
ADVANTAGE
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Striking Accuracy
42.6%
+1.4%
44.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.53
+1.52
3.01
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.16
+1.27
2.89
Striking Defense
57.4%
+4.4%
53.0%
Takedown Accuracy
33.1%
+12.0%
45.1%
Takedown Defense
68.4%
+3.3%
65.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.07
+0.03
0.10
Avg Control Time (sec)
101.63
+17.99
119.62
Strikes Per Round
21.13
+5.55
15.58
Head Strike %
67.2%
+1.6%
65.5%
Body Strike %
17.7%
+4.3%
22.0%
Leg Strike %
15.2%
+2.7%
12.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%