Erin Blanchfield
"Cold Blooded"
14-2-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius
14-4-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Erin Blanchfield 'Cold Blooded'
74.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
67%
Decision
13%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
Decision67.1%
KO / TKO12.9%
Submission20.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 136.7%
Round 244.9%
Round 3+18.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 33% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Erin Blanchfield
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -10.17
15%
Age
Jasmine Jasudavicius 37.6 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jasmine Jasudavicius -0.94
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 37
7%
Strikes absorbed/min
Erin Blanchfield 4.16
6%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.25
5%
Avg control time
Jasmine Jasudavicius 119.62
5%
Age
Erin Blanchfield 27.5 yrs
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Erin Blanchfield 4.04
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.04
3%
Elo rating
Erin Blanchfield 1,616
3%
Head absorption rate
Erin Blanchfield 68%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jasmine Jasudavicius 3.78
3%
Distance strike defense
Jasmine Jasudavicius 56%
3%
← pushes toward Erin Blanchfield pushes toward Jasmine Jasudavicius →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Erin Blanchfield

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
16.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Erin Blanchfield
ADVANTAGE
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Striking Accuracy
42.6%
+1.4%
44.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.53
+1.52
3.01
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.16
+1.27
2.89
Striking Defense
57.4%
+4.4%
53.0%
Takedown Accuracy
33.1%
+12.0%
45.1%
Takedown Defense
68.4%
+3.3%
65.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.07
+0.03
0.10
Avg Control Time (sec)
101.63
+17.99
119.62
Strikes Per Round
21.13
+5.55
15.58
Head Strike %
67.2%
+1.6%
65.5%
Body Strike %
17.7%
+4.3%
22.0%
Leg Strike %
15.2%
+2.7%
12.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%