Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-8-2
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Flyweight
Joseph Morales
"Bopo"
15-2-0
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Brandon Moreno 'The Assassin Baby'
65.8% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
51%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
Decision51.3%
KO / TKO24.1%
Submission24.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.1%
Round 233.8%
Round 3+19.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 49% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Brandon Moreno
Joseph Morales
Elo rating edge
Matchup 58
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joseph Morales -0.86
11%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +16
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Brandon Moreno -0.96
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
7%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.31
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joseph Morales 3.00
3%
Round 1 strike output
Joseph Morales 9.87
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Brandon Moreno 3.67
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 7%
3%
Age
Brandon Moreno 32.8 yrs
3%
Td defense round 1
Joseph Morales 32%
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Brandon Moreno 3.73
3%
Head absorption rate
Brandon Moreno 67%
2%
← pushes toward Brandon Moreno pushes toward Joseph Morales →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Brandon Moreno

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
21.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Joseph Morales

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W SUB
L DEC
L KO
W SUB
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Brandon Moreno
ADVANTAGE
Joseph Morales
Striking Accuracy
47.1%
+2.3%
44.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.73
+1.05
2.68
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.73
+1.10
2.63
Striking Defense
59.4%
+4.6%
54.8%
Takedown Accuracy
30.9%
+7.3%
38.2%
Takedown Defense
64.6%
+5.7%
58.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.15
+0.01
0.15
Avg Control Time (sec)
79.41
+2.20
81.61
Strikes Per Round
18.14
+3.66
14.48
Head Strike %
69.9%
+7.7%
62.1%
Body Strike %
17.7%
+5.3%
23.1%
Leg Strike %
12.4%
+2.4%
14.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+60.0%
60.0%