Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-8-2
VS
Joseph Morales
"Bopo"
15-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
66.8%
33.2%
Brandon Moreno
LightGBM
60.1%
39.9%
Brandon Moreno
Logistic (Core)
57.6%
42.4%
Brandon Moreno
CatBoost
63.0%
37.0%
Brandon Moreno
Ensemble
65.4%
34.6%
Brandon Moreno
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
62.4%
37.6%
Brandon Moreno
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
65.2%
34.8%
Brandon Moreno
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
currently viewing
66.3%
33.7%
Brandon Moreno
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
58.0%
42.0%
Brandon Moreno
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
66.6%
33.4%
Brandon Moreno
With Odds · CatBoost
52.3%
47.7%
Brandon Moreno
With Odds · Ensemble
51.8%
48.2%
Brandon Moreno
With Odds · LightGBM
56.8%
43.2%
Brandon Moreno
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
57.6%
42.4%
Brandon Moreno
With Odds · XGBoost
58.5%
41.5%
Brandon Moreno
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Brandon Moreno
Joseph Morales
20%
10%
10%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Brandon Moreno
pushes toward Joseph Morales →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Brandon Moreno
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
L
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Joseph Morales
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
L
DEC
L
KO
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
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