Back
Tommy McMillen
"Gun"
9-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Featherweight
Marwan Rahiki
"Freaky"
7-0-0
Thin UFC data
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Tommy McMillen 'Gun'
53.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
55.7% 44.3%
Tommy McMillen
LightGBM currently viewing
53.6% 46.4%
Tommy McMillen
Logistic (Core)
65.6% 34.4%
Tommy McMillen
CatBoost
55.0% 45.0%
Tommy McMillen
Ensemble
58.3% 41.7%
Tommy McMillen
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision47.0%
KO / TKO39.3%
Submission13.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.7%
Round 225.7%
Round 3+18.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Tommy McMillen
Marwan Rahiki
Net striking dominance
Matchup +2.30
22%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tommy McMillen +0.94
11%
Age
Marwan Rahiki 24.3 yrs
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Marwan Rahiki 7
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tommy McMillen 1.91
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -4%
4%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +4.40
4%
Age
Tommy McMillen 28.7 yrs
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Marwan Rahiki 1.95
4%
Distance strike defense
Marwan Rahiki 59%
4%
Head absorption rate
Marwan Rahiki 60%
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Tommy McMillen 3.60
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Tommy McMillen 9
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +2
2%
← pushes toward Tommy McMillen pushes toward Marwan Rahiki →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Tommy McMillen

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
8.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Marwan Rahiki

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
6.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Tommy McMillen
ADVANTAGE
Marwan Rahiki
Striking Accuracy
49.2%
+1.0%
50.2%
Strikes Landed/Min
10.53
+5.30
5.23
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.60
+0.46
4.06
Striking Defense
59.8%
+2.8%
57.0%
Takedown Accuracy
37.5%
EVEN
37.5%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
+2.5%
65.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.71
+0.38
0.33
Avg Control Time (sec)
64.64
+9.36
74.00
Strikes Per Round
37.31
+15.61
21.70
Head Strike %
69.3%
+5.1%
64.2%
Body Strike %
22.1%
+2.6%
19.6%
Leg Strike %
8.5%
+7.7%
16.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
EVEN
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
EVEN
100.0%