Tommy McMillen
"Gun"
9-0-0
VS
Marwan Rahiki
"Freaky"
7-0-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
54.5%
45.5%
Tommy McMillen
LightGBM
54.7%
45.3%
Tommy McMillen
Logistic (Core)
65.2%
34.8%
Tommy McMillen
CatBoost
53.8%
46.2%
Tommy McMillen
Ensemble
57.4%
42.6%
Tommy McMillen
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
55.7%
44.3%
Tommy McMillen
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
59.4%
40.6%
Tommy McMillen
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
57.0%
43.0%
Tommy McMillen
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
65.2%
34.8%
Tommy McMillen
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
55.9%
44.1%
Tommy McMillen
With Odds · CatBoost
58.1%
41.9%
Tommy McMillen
With Odds · Ensemble
57.1%
42.9%
Tommy McMillen
With Odds · LightGBM
currently viewing
52.7%
47.3%
Tommy McMillen
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
65.5%
34.5%
Tommy McMillen
With Odds · XGBoost
54.0%
46.0%
Tommy McMillen
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Tommy McMillen
Marwan Rahiki
11%
11%
9%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Tommy McMillen
pushes toward Marwan Rahiki →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Tommy McMillen
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Marwan Rahiki
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox