Umar Nurmagomedov
19-1-0
VS
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
22-8-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
78.0%
22.0%
Umar Nurmagomedov
LightGBM
79.1%
20.9%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Logistic (Core)
63.3%
36.7%
Umar Nurmagomedov
CatBoost
currently viewing
75.5%
24.5%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Ensemble
79.9%
20.1%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
76.0%
24.0%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
78.0%
22.0%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
77.4%
22.6%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
59.9%
40.1%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
79.0%
21.0%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Umar Nurmagomedov
Song Yadong
18%
11%
9%
8%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
← pushes toward Umar Nurmagomedov
pushes toward Song Yadong →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Song Yadong
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox