Umar Nurmagomedov
19-1-0
VS
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
22-8-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
79.8%
20.2%
Umar Nurmagomedov
LightGBM
79.0%
21.0%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Logistic (Core)
63.4%
36.6%
Umar Nurmagomedov
CatBoost
76.3%
23.7%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Ensemble
currently viewing
79.8%
20.2%
Umar Nurmagomedov
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Umar Nurmagomedov
Song Yadong
17%
14%
6%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Umar Nurmagomedov
pushes toward Song Yadong →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
19.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Song Yadong
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
15.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Umar Nurmagomedov
ADVANTAGE
Song Yadong
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate