Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-10-0
VS
Kyle Daukaus
17-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
56.6%
43.4%
Marc-Andre Barriault
LightGBM
50.9%
49.1%
Marc-Andre Barriault
Logistic (Core)
37.0%
63.0%
Kyle Daukaus
CatBoost
48.0%
52.0%
Kyle Daukaus
Ensemble
currently viewing
47.4%
52.6%
Kyle Daukaus
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
30%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 70%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Marc-Andre Barriault
Kyle Daukaus
12%
11%
8%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Marc-Andre Barriault
pushes toward Kyle Daukaus →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Marc-Andre Barriault
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
L
KO
L
KO
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Kyle Daukaus
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
3.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
SUB
W
KO
L
KO
L
KO
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Marc-Andre Barriault
ADVANTAGE
Kyle Daukaus
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate