Back
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-10-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Middleweight
Kyle Daukaus
17-4-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Kyle Daukaus
51.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
49.6% 50.4%
Kyle Daukaus
LightGBM
51.9% 48.1%
Marc-Andre Barriault
Logistic (Core)
36.6% 63.4%
Kyle Daukaus
CatBoost
46.8% 53.2%
Kyle Daukaus
Ensemble
50.7% 49.3%
Marc-Andre Barriault
No Age · CatBoost
45.0% 55.0%
Kyle Daukaus
No Age · Ensemble
54.2% 45.8%
Marc-Andre Barriault
No Age · LightGBM
53.6% 46.4%
Marc-Andre Barriault
No Age · Logistic (Core)
39.9% 60.1%
Kyle Daukaus
No Age · XGBoost
53.3% 46.7%
Marc-Andre Barriault
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
45.4% 54.6%
Kyle Daukaus
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble currently viewing
48.8% 51.2%
Kyle Daukaus
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
47.1% 52.9%
Kyle Daukaus
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
33.0% 67.0%
Kyle Daukaus
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
45.9% 54.1%
Kyle Daukaus
With Odds · CatBoost
48.7% 51.3%
Kyle Daukaus
With Odds · Ensemble
52.5% 47.5%
Marc-Andre Barriault
With Odds · LightGBM
52.6% 47.4%
Marc-Andre Barriault
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
36.6% 63.4%
Kyle Daukaus
With Odds · XGBoost
53.8% 46.2%
Marc-Andre Barriault
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
32%
Decision
46%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision32.1%
KO / TKO45.8%
Submission22.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 162.9%
Round 223.1%
Round 3+14.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 68% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Marc-Andre Barriault
Kyle Daukaus
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.77
17%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kyle Daukaus -1.15
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -27
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +6
8%
Age
Marc-Andre Barriault 36.7 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Marc-Andre Barriault -2.52
7%
Age
Kyle Daukaus 33.6 yrs
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kyle Daukaus 2.26
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Marc-Andre Barriault 1.54
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Marc-Andre Barriault 5.43
3%
Distance strike defense
Marc-Andre Barriault 50%
2%
Fights per year
Kyle Daukaus 1.68
2%
Round 1 strike output
Kyle Daukaus 9.77
2%
Fight back rate when dropped
Marc-Andre Barriault 33%
2%
← pushes toward Marc-Andre Barriault pushes toward Kyle Daukaus →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Marc-Andre Barriault

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
L KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Kyle Daukaus

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
3.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W SUB
W KO
L KO
L KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Marc-Andre Barriault
ADVANTAGE
Kyle Daukaus
Striking Accuracy
45.9%
+0.8%
46.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.39
+2.17
2.23
Strikes Absorbed/Min
5.43
+2.94
2.48
Striking Defense
45.9%
+4.5%
50.4%
Takedown Accuracy
36.0%
+4.6%
31.4%
Takedown Defense
66.8%
+6.8%
59.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.23
+0.10
0.32
Avg Control Time (sec)
65.63
+13.42
79.05
Strikes Per Round
20.09
+7.58
12.51
Head Strike %
68.5%
+3.6%
64.9%
Body Strike %
21.9%
+3.0%
18.9%
Leg Strike %
9.6%
+6.6%
16.2%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%