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Rodolfo Bellato
"Trator"
12-3-1
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Light Heavyweight
Christian Edwards
"Pain"
8-5-0
Thin UFC data
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Rodolfo Bellato 'Trator'
59.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
55.8% 44.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
LightGBM
57.2% 42.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
Logistic (Core)
51.2% 48.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
CatBoost
58.3% 41.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
Ensemble
55.1% 44.9%
Rodolfo Bellato
market-margin__xgb-full
55.3% 44.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · CatBoost
58.2% 41.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · Ensemble
56.3% 43.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · LightGBM
55.5% 44.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.8% 45.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · XGBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
60.4% 39.6%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
57.5% 42.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
59.9% 40.1%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.6% 48.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · CatBoost
59.1% 40.9%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · Ensemble
53.5% 46.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · LightGBM
56.6% 43.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.2% 48.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · XGBoost
52.8% 47.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision44.3%
KO / TKO42.0%
Submission13.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.1%
Round 226.8%
Round 3+17.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Rodolfo Bellato
Christian Edwards
Elo rating edge
Matchup 44
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.12
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rodolfo Bellato -1.58
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Christian Edwards -0.57
6%
Age
Christian Edwards 27.9 yrs
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 19%
4%
Age
Rodolfo Bellato 30.6 yrs
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rodolfo Bellato 2.45
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Rodolfo Bellato 4.73
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +3
3%
Distance strike defense
Rodolfo Bellato 56%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Christian Edwards 2.82
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Rodolfo Bellato 0.18
2%
← pushes toward Rodolfo Bellato pushes toward Christian Edwards →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rodolfo Bellato

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
D DEC
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Christian Edwards

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Rodolfo Bellato
ADVANTAGE
Christian Edwards
Striking Accuracy
53.3%
+6.7%
46.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.14
+1.42
2.71
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.73
+2.02
2.71
Striking Defense
50.0%
+5.1%
55.1%
Takedown Accuracy
38.4%
+9.4%
29.0%
Takedown Defense
74.4%
+11.9%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.26
+0.06
0.19
Avg Control Time (sec)
66.74
+14.70
81.45
Strikes Per Round
18.64
+4.43
14.22
Head Strike %
60.6%
+2.3%
58.3%
Body Strike %
20.9%
+4.4%
25.3%
Leg Strike %
18.4%
+2.1%
16.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%