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Rodolfo Bellato
"Trator"
12-3-1
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Light Heavyweight
Christian Edwards
"Pain"
8-5-0
Thin UFC data
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Rodolfo Bellato 'Trator'
52.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
55.8% 44.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
LightGBM
57.2% 42.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
Logistic (Core)
51.2% 48.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
CatBoost
58.3% 41.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
Ensemble
55.1% 44.9%
Rodolfo Bellato
market-margin__xgb-full
55.3% 44.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · CatBoost
58.2% 41.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · Ensemble
56.3% 43.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · LightGBM
55.5% 44.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.8% 45.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · XGBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
60.4% 39.6%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
57.5% 42.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
59.9% 40.1%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.6% 48.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · CatBoost
59.1% 40.9%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · Ensemble
53.5% 46.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · LightGBM
56.6% 43.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.2% 48.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
52.8% 47.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision44.3%
KO / TKO42.0%
Submission13.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.1%
Round 226.8%
Round 3+17.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Rodolfo Bellato
Christian Edwards
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
19%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rodolfo Bellato -1.58
6%
Age
Christian Edwards 27.9 yrs
6%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Rodolfo Bellato 0.18
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Christian Edwards -0.57
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Rodolfo Bellato 4.73
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Rodolfo Bellato 1.12
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Christian Edwards 13
3%
Striking accuracy
Rodolfo Bellato 53%
3%
Distance strike defense
Christian Edwards 60%
2%
Last 2 avg fight time
Christian Edwards 900
2%
Fights per year
Rodolfo Bellato 2.21
2%
← pushes toward Rodolfo Bellato pushes toward Christian Edwards →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rodolfo Bellato

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
D DEC
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Christian Edwards

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Rodolfo Bellato
ADVANTAGE
Christian Edwards
Striking Accuracy
53.3%
+6.7%
46.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.14
+1.42
2.71
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.73
+2.02
2.71
Striking Defense
50.0%
+5.1%
55.1%
Takedown Accuracy
38.4%
+9.4%
29.0%
Takedown Defense
74.4%
+11.9%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.26
+0.06
0.19
Avg Control Time (sec)
66.74
+14.70
81.45
Strikes Per Round
18.64
+4.43
14.22
Head Strike %
60.6%
+2.3%
58.3%
Body Strike %
20.9%
+4.4%
25.3%
Leg Strike %
18.4%
+2.1%
16.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%