Back
Rafael Tobias
"Bipolar"
14-1-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Light Heavyweight
Lucas Fernando
9-2-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Rafael Tobias 'Bipolar'
56.8% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Lucas Fernando won
KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:10
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
57.1% 42.9%
Rafael Tobias
LightGBM
55.8% 44.2%
Rafael Tobias
Logistic (Core)
56.8% 43.2%
Rafael Tobias
CatBoost currently viewing
56.8% 43.2%
Rafael Tobias
Ensemble
55.4% 44.6%
Rafael Tobias
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Rafael Tobias
Lucas Fernando
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
25%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rafael Tobias
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Reach edge
Matchup
5%
Age
Lucas Fernando
5%
Age
Rafael Tobias
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rafael Tobias
4%
Significant reach edge
Matchup
3%
Rating uncertainty overlap
Matchup
2%
Fights per year
Lucas Fernando
2%
Distance strike defense
Rafael Tobias
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Rafael Tobias
2%
← pushes toward Rafael Tobias pushes toward Lucas Fernando →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rafael Tobias

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Lucas Fernando

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: N/A