Rafael Tobias
"Bipolar"
14-1-0
Thin UFC data
VS
Lucas Fernando
9-2-0
Thin UFC data
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
57.1%
42.9%
Rafael Tobias
LightGBM
55.8%
44.2%
Rafael Tobias
Logistic (Core)
56.8%
43.2%
Rafael Tobias
CatBoost
56.8%
43.2%
Rafael Tobias
Ensemble
55.4%
44.6%
Rafael Tobias
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
43%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 57%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Rafael Tobias
Lucas Fernando
17%
8%
8%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Rafael Tobias
pushes toward Lucas Fernando →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Rafael Tobias
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Lucas Fernando
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
203 cm
Stance:
N/A
Head-to-Head Stats
Rafael Tobias
ADVANTAGE
Lucas Fernando
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %