Magomed Tuchalov
"Wild"
6-0-0
VS
2026-07-25
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Light Heavyweight
Brendson Ribeiro
"The Gorilla"
17-9-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Magomed Tuchalov 'Wild'
66.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
40%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
Decision39.7%
KO / TKO38.8%
Submission21.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 154.2%
Round 228.8%
Round 3+17.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 60% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Magomed Tuchalov
Brendson Ribeiro
Elo rating edge
Matchup
20%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
17%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Age
Magomed Tuchalov
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Brendson Ribeiro
6%
Age
Brendson Ribeiro
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Brendson Ribeiro
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Magomed Tuchalov
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Distance strike defense
Brendson Ribeiro
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Magomed Tuchalov
2%
Fights per year
Magomed Tuchalov
2%
Past prime
Magomed Tuchalov
2%
Past prime
Brendson Ribeiro
2%
← pushes toward Magomed Tuchalov pushes toward Brendson Ribeiro →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Magomed Tuchalov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Brendson Ribeiro

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L SUB
L KO
L KO
W SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 206 cm
Stance: Orthodox