Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-8-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Heavyweight
Robelis Despaigne
"The Big Boy"
5-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Robelis Despaigne 'The Big Boy'
50.6% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
37%
Decision
50%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision36.9%
KO / TKO50.1%
Submission13.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 157.7%
Round 225.2%
Round 3+17.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Tai Tuivasa
Robelis Despaigne
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Robelis Despaigne -1.04
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.66
10%
Age
Robelis Despaigne 38.0 yrs
10%
Reach edge
Matchup -22.9 cm
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +16
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 28
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tai Tuivasa -0.40
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tai Tuivasa 0.86
4%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -4.51
4%
Round 1 strike output
Robelis Despaigne 8.79
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Tai Tuivasa 3.65
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Robelis Despaigne 1.44
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -10%
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.03
2%
← pushes toward Tai Tuivasa pushes toward Robelis Despaigne →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Tai Tuivasa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
11.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L SUB
L SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 264 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Robelis Despaigne

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
10.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
Height: 201 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 213 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Tai Tuivasa
ADVANTAGE
Robelis Despaigne
Striking Accuracy
47.4%
+1.3%
48.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.39
+0.04
2.35
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.65
+1.14
2.52
Striking Defense
43.9%
+8.5%
52.4%
Takedown Accuracy
36.6%
+0.9%
37.5%
Takedown Defense
61.6%
+2.8%
58.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.24
+0.01
0.25
Avg Control Time (sec)
65.65
+7.20
72.85
Strikes Per Round
12.62
+0.35
12.97
Head Strike %
59.8%
+3.4%
63.3%
Body Strike %
19.3%
+1.0%
18.3%
Leg Strike %
20.9%
+2.4%
18.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+33.3%
33.3%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+33.3%
33.3%