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Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-8-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Heavyweight
Robelis Despaigne
"The Big Boy"
5-2-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Tai Tuivasa 'Bam Bam'
54.4% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Robelis Despaigne 'The Big Boy' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
42.3% 57.7%
Robelis Despaigne
LightGBM
47.4% 52.6%
Robelis Despaigne
Logistic (Core)
51.3% 48.7%
Tai Tuivasa
CatBoost
47.1% 52.9%
Robelis Despaigne
Ensemble
42.0% 58.0%
Robelis Despaigne
market-margin__xgb-full
21.4% 78.6%
Robelis Despaigne
No Age · CatBoost
36.6% 63.4%
Robelis Despaigne
No Age · Ensemble
31.9% 68.1%
Robelis Despaigne
No Age · LightGBM
33.6% 66.4%
Robelis Despaigne
No Age · Logistic (Core)
37.9% 62.1%
Robelis Despaigne
No Age · XGBoost
36.3% 63.7%
Robelis Despaigne
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
51.6% 48.4%
Tai Tuivasa
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
47.4% 52.6%
Robelis Despaigne
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
54.4% 45.6%
Tai Tuivasa
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
54.2% 45.8%
Tai Tuivasa
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
51.2% 48.8%
Tai Tuivasa
With Odds · CatBoost
19.8% 80.2%
Robelis Despaigne
With Odds · Ensemble
20.7% 79.3%
Robelis Despaigne
With Odds · LightGBM
21.0% 79.0%
Robelis Despaigne
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.3% 48.7%
Tai Tuivasa
With Odds · XGBoost
18.2% 81.8%
Robelis Despaigne
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
37%
Decision
51%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision36.9%
KO / TKO51.0%
Submission12.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 157.6%
Round 228.5%
Round 3+13.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Tai Tuivasa
Robelis Despaigne
Net striking dominance
Matchup
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Robelis Despaigne
12%
Age
Robelis Despaigne
9%
Reach edge
Matchup
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tai Tuivasa
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
5%
Round 1 strike output
Robelis Despaigne
5%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tai Tuivasa
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
3%
Age
Tai Tuivasa
3%
Control time conceded
Robelis Despaigne
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Robelis Despaigne
2%
← pushes toward Tai Tuivasa pushes toward Robelis Despaigne →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Tai Tuivasa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 264 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Robelis Despaigne

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
Height: 201 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 213 cm
Stance: Orthodox