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Natalia Silva
19-5-1
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Women's Flyweight
Wang Cong
"The Joker"
8-1-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Natalia Silva
55.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost currently viewing
55.2% 44.8%
Natalia Silva
LightGBM
57.6% 42.4%
Natalia Silva
Logistic (Core)
57.4% 42.6%
Natalia Silva
CatBoost
61.4% 38.6%
Natalia Silva
Ensemble
57.8% 42.2%
Natalia Silva
market-margin__xgb-full
64.5% 35.5%
Natalia Silva
No Age · CatBoost
47.3% 52.7%
Wang Cong
No Age · Ensemble
44.4% 55.6%
Wang Cong
No Age · LightGBM
42.5% 57.5%
Wang Cong
No Age · Logistic (Core)
44.3% 55.7%
Wang Cong
No Age · XGBoost
44.8% 55.2%
Wang Cong
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
58.8% 41.2%
Natalia Silva
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
61.3% 38.7%
Natalia Silva
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
60.8% 39.2%
Natalia Silva
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
56.9% 43.1%
Natalia Silva
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
59.5% 40.5%
Natalia Silva
With Odds · CatBoost
65.0% 35.0%
Natalia Silva
With Odds · Ensemble
62.0% 38.0%
Natalia Silva
With Odds · LightGBM
63.1% 36.9%
Natalia Silva
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
57.4% 42.6%
Natalia Silva
With Odds · XGBoost
59.3% 40.7%
Natalia Silva
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
9%
Submission
Decision63.3%
KO / TKO27.8%
Submission8.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 131.0%
Round 227.8%
Round 3+41.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Natalia Silva
Wang Cong
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.24
19%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 64
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Wang Cong -0.87
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +16
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Natalia Silva -1.26
6%
Age
Wang Cong 34.4 yrs
6%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -4.72
4%
Age
Natalia Silva 29.7 yrs
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Natalia Silva 1.93
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Wang Cong 1.46
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -9%
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Natalia Silva 0.17
2%
Striking defense
Wang Cong 58%
2%
Distance strike defense
Natalia Silva 65%
2%
← pushes toward Natalia Silva pushes toward Wang Cong →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Natalia Silva

Win Streak
8
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Wang Cong

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
13.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
L SUB
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Natalia Silva
ADVANTAGE
Wang Cong
Striking Accuracy
44.1%
+11.9%
56.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.24
+1.60
5.83
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.59
+0.36
2.94
Striking Defense
63.4%
+5.2%
58.2%
Takedown Accuracy
36.0%
+5.2%
41.2%
Takedown Defense
75.9%
+1.1%
77.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.16
+0.18
0.34
Avg Control Time (sec)
61.07
+4.16
56.92
Strikes Per Round
20.11
+5.84
25.95
Head Strike %
59.6%
+6.6%
53.0%
Body Strike %
21.0%
+1.6%
22.7%
Leg Strike %
19.4%
+5.0%
24.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+20.0%
80.0%