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Alden Coria
"Cobra"
11-3-0
VS
2026-07-18
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Barriault
Flyweight
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
8-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Alden Coria 'Cobra'
75.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.7% 23.3%
Alden Coria
LightGBM currently viewing
75.2% 24.8%
Alden Coria
Logistic (Core)
81.2% 18.8%
Alden Coria
CatBoost
73.8% 26.2%
Alden Coria
Ensemble
75.9% 24.1%
Alden Coria
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
27%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision57.1%
KO / TKO27.4%
Submission15.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.9%
Round 231.8%
Round 3+17.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
Net striking dominance
Matchup
17%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
16%
Avg takedowns attempted
Stewart Nicoll
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alden Coria
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
4%
Age
Alden Coria
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alden Coria
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Stewart Nicoll
3%
Age
Stewart Nicoll
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Alden Coria
2%
Fights per year
Alden Coria
2%
Distance strike defense
Alden Coria
2%
← pushes toward Alden Coria pushes toward Stewart Nicoll →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alden Coria

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Stewart Nicoll

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
L DEC
L SUB
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox