Alden Coria
"Cobra"
11-3-0
VS
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
8-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.7%
23.3%
Alden Coria
LightGBM
75.2%
24.8%
Alden Coria
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
81.2%
18.8%
Alden Coria
CatBoost
73.8%
26.2%
Alden Coria
Ensemble
75.9%
24.1%
Alden Coria
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
27%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
16%
11%
10%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Alden Coria
pushes toward Stewart Nicoll →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Alden Coria
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Stewart Nicoll
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
KO
L
DEC
L
SUB
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
165 cm
Stance:
Orthodox