Borislav Nikolic
"Zombee"
16-2-0
VS
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Mark Vologdin
12-4-1
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Mark Vologdin
55.4% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
55%
Decision
27%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision54.7%
KO / TKO27.1%
Submission18.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.7%
Round 227.9%
Round 3+27.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Borislav Nikolic
Mark Vologdin
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
30%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mark Vologdin
10%
Age
Borislav Nikolic
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Age
Mark Vologdin
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mark Vologdin
4%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Borislav Nikolic
3%
Past prime
Borislav Nikolic
3%
Distance strike defense
Mark Vologdin
2%
Fights per year
Borislav Nikolic
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Mark Vologdin
2%
Striker anti-wrestling edge
Matchup
2%
Distance strike defense
Borislav Nikolic
2%
← pushes toward Borislav Nikolic pushes toward Mark Vologdin →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Borislav Nikolic

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: Orthodox

Mark Vologdin

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
D DEC
Height: 160 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox