Mandel Nallo
"Mango"
14-3-0
Thin UFC data
VS
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
18-7-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
62.5%
37.5%
Mandel Nallo
LightGBM
62.9%
37.1%
Mandel Nallo
Logistic (Core)
54.5%
45.5%
Mandel Nallo
CatBoost
currently viewing
62.0%
38.0%
Mandel Nallo
Ensemble
59.1%
40.9%
Mandel Nallo
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
38%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 62%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Mandel Nallo
Nate Landwehr
12%
12%
11%
9%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Mandel Nallo
pushes toward Nate Landwehr →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Mandel Nallo
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
2.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Nate Landwehr
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
KO
L
KO
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mandel Nallo
ADVANTAGE
Nate Landwehr
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate