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Mandel Nallo
"Mango"
14-3-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Lightweight
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
18-7-0
WITH ODDS · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Mandel Nallo 'Mango'
53.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
61.0% 39.0%
Mandel Nallo
LightGBM
61.9% 38.1%
Mandel Nallo
Logistic (Core)
54.6% 45.4%
Mandel Nallo
CatBoost
62.7% 37.3%
Mandel Nallo
Ensemble
61.5% 38.5%
Mandel Nallo
No Age · CatBoost
61.8% 38.2%
Mandel Nallo
No Age · Ensemble
63.0% 37.0%
Mandel Nallo
No Age · LightGBM
63.4% 36.6%
Mandel Nallo
No Age · Logistic (Core)
56.5% 43.5%
Mandel Nallo
No Age · XGBoost
61.5% 38.5%
Mandel Nallo
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
64.4% 35.6%
Mandel Nallo
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
62.2% 37.8%
Mandel Nallo
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
61.2% 38.8%
Mandel Nallo
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
55.6% 44.4%
Mandel Nallo
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
65.0% 35.0%
Mandel Nallo
With Odds · CatBoost currently viewing
53.9% 46.1%
Mandel Nallo
With Odds · Ensemble
54.2% 45.8%
Mandel Nallo
With Odds · LightGBM
55.0% 45.0%
Mandel Nallo
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
54.6% 45.4%
Mandel Nallo
With Odds · XGBoost
52.3% 47.7%
Mandel Nallo
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
40%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
26%
Submission
Decision39.5%
KO / TKO34.7%
Submission25.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 162.9%
Round 225.4%
Round 3+11.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 60% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Mandel Nallo
Nate Landwehr
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -8
16%
Age
Mandel Nallo 37.2 yrs
10%
Age
Nate Landwehr 38.4 yrs
9%
Last 2 avg fight time
Mandel Nallo 125
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nate Landwehr -0.48
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Nate Landwehr 1.80
4%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Nate Landwehr 436.50
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mandel Nallo 2.37
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Nate Landwehr 4.67
3%
Distance strike defense
Mandel Nallo 59%
3%
Fights per year
Nate Landwehr 1.77
2%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.12
2%
Head-strike accuracy
Nate Landwehr 41%
2%
← pushes toward Mandel Nallo pushes toward Nate Landwehr →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mandel Nallo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
2.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Nate Landwehr

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
L DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mandel Nallo
ADVANTAGE
Nate Landwehr
Striking Accuracy
45.8%
+1.7%
44.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.11
+0.83
3.93
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.24
+1.43
4.67
Striking Defense
52.1%
+2.3%
49.7%
Takedown Accuracy
37.5%
+0.0%
37.5%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
+2.0%
60.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.38
+0.23
0.15
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.89
+7.60
65.28
Strikes Per Round
15.47
+2.88
18.35
Head Strike %
64.5%
+4.2%
68.7%
Body Strike %
19.5%
+2.2%
17.3%
Leg Strike %
16.0%
+2.0%
14.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%