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Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-12-0
VS
2026-08-29
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Bantamweight
Kai Asakura
21-6-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Kai Asakura
57.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
41.3% 58.7%
Kai Asakura
LightGBM currently viewing
42.1% 57.9%
Kai Asakura
Logistic (Core)
44.7% 55.3%
Kai Asakura
CatBoost
44.6% 55.4%
Kai Asakura
Ensemble
42.5% 57.5%
Kai Asakura
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
46%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision46.1%
KO / TKO39.8%
Submission14.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.9%
Round 231.4%
Round 3+11.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 54% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Aoriqileng
Kai Asakura
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.54
18%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +11
14%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Aoriqileng -1.84
10%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kai Asakura 1.85
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Aoriqileng 1.86
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 12%
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Kai Asakura 344.50
3%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup -0.06
3%
Age
Kai Asakura 32.8 yrs
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Aoriqileng 3.99
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Aoriqileng 226
3%
Distance strike defense
Aoriqileng 55%
3%
Elo rating
Kai Asakura 1,485
2%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Kai Asakura 0.45
2%
← pushes toward Aoriqileng pushes toward Kai Asakura →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Aoriqileng

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Kai Asakura

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
6.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L SUB
L SUB
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Aoriqileng
ADVANTAGE
Kai Asakura
Striking Accuracy
48.4%
+8.0%
40.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.87
+0.32
2.55
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.99
+1.22
2.77
Striking Defense
46.6%
+8.1%
54.6%
Takedown Accuracy
39.1%
+1.6%
37.5%
Takedown Defense
61.8%
+3.9%
57.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.28
+0.03
0.31
Avg Control Time (sec)
68.14
+3.94
64.20
Strikes Per Round
15.02
+0.60
14.42
Head Strike %
63.3%
+1.1%
64.4%
Body Strike %
22.1%
+1.4%
20.7%
Leg Strike %
14.6%
+0.3%
14.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+6.7%
33.3%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+13.3%
33.3%