Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-12-0
VS
Kai Asakura
21-6-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
41.7%
58.3%
Kai Asakura
LightGBM
43.3%
56.7%
Kai Asakura
Logistic (Core)
44.8%
55.2%
Kai Asakura
CatBoost
44.9%
55.1%
Kai Asakura
Ensemble
42.5%
57.5%
Kai Asakura
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
45.2%
54.8%
Kai Asakura
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
41.2%
58.8%
Kai Asakura
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
42.4%
57.6%
Kai Asakura
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
43.1%
56.9%
Kai Asakura
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
currently viewing
43.6%
56.4%
Kai Asakura
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Aoriqileng
Kai Asakura
15%
10%
9%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Aoriqileng
pushes toward Kai Asakura →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Aoriqileng
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
KO
W
KO
L
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Kai Asakura
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
KO
L
SUB
L
SUB
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox