Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
18-9-0
VS
2026-07-18
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Barriault
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
13-2-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Christian Leroy Duncan 'CLD'
76.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
47%
Decision
45%
KO / TKO
8%
Submission
Decision46.8%
KO / TKO44.7%
Submission8.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 141.2%
Round 236.1%
Round 3+22.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Jared Cannonier
Christian Leroy Duncan
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
13%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
11%
Age
Jared Cannonier
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jared Cannonier
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Jared Cannonier
3%
Head absorption rate
Christian Leroy Duncan
3%
Age
Christian Leroy Duncan
3%
Head absorption rate
Jared Cannonier
3%
Fights per year
Jared Cannonier
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Striking accuracy
Christian Leroy Duncan
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Christian Leroy Duncan
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Jared Cannonier
3%
← pushes toward Jared Cannonier pushes toward Christian Leroy Duncan →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jared Cannonier

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
L KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Switch

Christian Leroy Duncan

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Switch