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Deiveson Figueiredo
"Deus da Guerra"
25-5-1
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott
10-1-0
MARKET-MARGIN__XGB-FULL PREDICTION
Payton Talbott
71.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
32.1% 67.9%
Payton Talbott
LightGBM
30.1% 69.9%
Payton Talbott
Logistic (Core)
24.1% 75.9%
Payton Talbott
CatBoost
32.8% 67.2%
Payton Talbott
Ensemble
33.7% 66.3%
Payton Talbott
market-margin__xgb-full currently viewing
28.2% 71.8%
Payton Talbott
No Age · CatBoost
42.0% 58.0%
Payton Talbott
No Age · Ensemble
38.7% 61.3%
Payton Talbott
No Age · LightGBM
37.8% 62.2%
Payton Talbott
No Age · Logistic (Core)
28.4% 71.6%
Payton Talbott
No Age · XGBoost
36.8% 63.2%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
37.9% 62.1%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
33.3% 66.7%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
31.6% 68.4%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
24.6% 75.4%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
29.3% 70.7%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · CatBoost
21.2% 78.8%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · Ensemble
21.3% 78.7%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · LightGBM
22.2% 77.8%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
24.1% 75.9%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · XGBoost
23.8% 76.2%
Payton Talbott
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
58%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision57.7%
KO / TKO23.7%
Submission18.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 141.8%
Round 238.2%
Round 3+20.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 42% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why market-margin__xgb-full leans this way
Deiveson Figueiredo
Payton Talbott
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +20
13%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.73
9%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -3.03
7%
Ground strike defense
Payton Talbott 29%
6%
Years past divisional prime
Deiveson Figueiredo 10.79
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Payton Talbott -0.60
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Deiveson Figueiredo -0.90
4%
Age
Payton Talbott 28.1 yrs
4%
Body-strike share
Deiveson Figueiredo 27%
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.06
3%
Age
Deiveson Figueiredo 38.8 yrs
3%
Years past divisional prime
Payton Talbott 0.07
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Payton Talbott 0.24
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Payton Talbott 900
2%
← pushes toward Deiveson Figueiredo pushes toward Payton Talbott →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Deiveson Figueiredo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
14.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L DEC
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Payton Talbott

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Deiveson Figueiredo
ADVANTAGE
Payton Talbott
Striking Accuracy
49.4%
+5.5%
54.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.09
+2.61
4.71
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.28
+0.42
2.86
Striking Defense
49.9%
+0.4%
49.5%
Takedown Accuracy
32.2%
+9.8%
42.1%
Takedown Defense
57.5%
+11.8%
69.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.25
+0.12
0.37
Avg Control Time (sec)
60.96
+14.64
75.60
Strikes Per Round
11.64
+9.74
21.38
Head Strike %
56.5%
+11.7%
68.3%
Body Strike %
26.6%
+6.4%
20.2%
Leg Strike %
16.8%
+5.3%
11.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+60.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%