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Deiveson Figueiredo
"Deus da Guerra"
25-5-1
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott
10-1-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Payton Talbott
77.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
32.1% 67.9%
Payton Talbott
LightGBM
30.1% 69.9%
Payton Talbott
Logistic (Core)
24.1% 75.9%
Payton Talbott
CatBoost
32.8% 67.2%
Payton Talbott
Ensemble
33.7% 66.3%
Payton Talbott
market-margin__xgb-full
28.2% 71.8%
Payton Talbott
No Age · CatBoost
42.0% 58.0%
Payton Talbott
No Age · Ensemble
38.7% 61.3%
Payton Talbott
No Age · LightGBM
37.8% 62.2%
Payton Talbott
No Age · Logistic (Core)
28.4% 71.6%
Payton Talbott
No Age · XGBoost
36.8% 63.2%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
37.9% 62.1%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
33.3% 66.7%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
31.6% 68.4%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
24.6% 75.4%
Payton Talbott
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
29.3% 70.7%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · CatBoost
21.2% 78.8%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · Ensemble
21.3% 78.7%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
22.2% 77.8%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
24.1% 75.9%
Payton Talbott
With Odds · XGBoost
23.8% 76.2%
Payton Talbott
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
58%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision57.7%
KO / TKO23.7%
Submission18.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 141.8%
Round 238.2%
Round 3+20.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 42% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Deiveson Figueiredo
Payton Talbott
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
48%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
10%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -3.03
6%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.73
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Deiveson Figueiredo -0.90
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +20
3%
Age
Deiveson Figueiredo 38.8 yrs
3%
Age
Payton Talbott 28.1 yrs
2%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
2%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Payton Talbott -0.60
2%
Striking defense
Payton Talbott 49%
2%
Takedown accuracy
Deiveson Figueiredo 32%
1%
Avg takedowns attempted
Deiveson Figueiredo 4.27
1%
Control time conceded
Payton Talbott 96.61
1%
← pushes toward Deiveson Figueiredo pushes toward Payton Talbott →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Deiveson Figueiredo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
14.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L DEC
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Payton Talbott

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Deiveson Figueiredo
ADVANTAGE
Payton Talbott
Striking Accuracy
49.4%
+5.5%
54.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.09
+2.61
4.71
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.28
+0.42
2.86
Striking Defense
49.9%
+0.4%
49.5%
Takedown Accuracy
32.2%
+9.8%
42.1%
Takedown Defense
57.5%
+11.8%
69.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.25
+0.12
0.37
Avg Control Time (sec)
60.96
+14.64
75.60
Strikes Per Round
11.64
+9.74
21.38
Head Strike %
56.5%
+11.7%
68.3%
Body Strike %
26.6%
+6.4%
20.2%
Leg Strike %
16.8%
+5.3%
11.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+60.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%