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Louis Jourdain
"The Mad Prince"
9-3-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Bantamweight
Timmy Cuamba
"Twilight"
10-3-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Louis Jourdain 'The Mad Prince'
55.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
57.4% 42.6%
Louis Jourdain
LightGBM currently viewing
55.7% 44.3%
Louis Jourdain
Logistic (Core)
52.1% 47.9%
Louis Jourdain
CatBoost
56.1% 43.9%
Louis Jourdain
Ensemble
54.0% 46.0%
Louis Jourdain
No Age · CatBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Louis Jourdain
No Age · Ensemble
57.7% 42.3%
Louis Jourdain
No Age · LightGBM
59.0% 41.0%
Louis Jourdain
No Age · Logistic (Core)
55.4% 44.6%
Louis Jourdain
No Age · XGBoost
59.4% 40.6%
Louis Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
56.5% 43.5%
Louis Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
54.8% 45.2%
Louis Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
53.8% 46.2%
Louis Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
52.2% 47.8%
Louis Jourdain
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
55.2% 44.8%
Louis Jourdain
With Odds · CatBoost
51.9% 48.1%
Louis Jourdain
With Odds · Ensemble
50.8% 49.2%
Louis Jourdain
With Odds · LightGBM
53.0% 47.0%
Louis Jourdain
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
52.1% 47.9%
Louis Jourdain
With Odds · XGBoost
55.9% 44.1%
Louis Jourdain
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision54.0%
KO / TKO31.1%
Submission14.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.1%
Round 230.9%
Round 3+17.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Louis Jourdain
Timmy Cuamba
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Timmy Cuamba -0.71
14%
Age
Timmy Cuamba 27.7 yrs
10%
Avg takedowns attempted
Timmy Cuamba 3.23
8%
Age
Louis Jourdain 29.6 yrs
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Louis Jourdain
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 13
4%
Elo rating
Louis Jourdain 1,500
4%
Distance strike defense
Timmy Cuamba 60%
4%
Fights per year
Louis Jourdain 0
4%
Distance strike defense
Louis Jourdain
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Timmy Cuamba 0.18
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -1
3%
Head absorption rate
Timmy Cuamba 65%
3%
Elo rating
Timmy Cuamba 1,487
2%
← pushes toward Louis Jourdain pushes toward Timmy Cuamba →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Louis Jourdain

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Timmy Cuamba

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Louis Jourdain
ADVANTAGE
Timmy Cuamba
Striking Accuracy
0.0%
+45.5%
45.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
0.00
+2.83
2.83
Strikes Absorbed/Min
0.00
+3.17
3.17
Striking Defense
0.0%
+54.1%
54.1%
Takedown Accuracy
0.0%
+35.8%
35.8%
Takedown Defense
0.0%
+64.9%
64.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.00
+0.21
0.21
Avg Control Time (sec)
0.00
+71.97
71.97
Strikes Per Round
0.00
+14.93
14.93
Head Strike %
0.0%
+62.1%
62.1%
Body Strike %
0.0%
+22.4%
22.4%
Leg Strike %
0.0%
+15.6%
15.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%