Mateusz Rebecki
20-4-0
VS
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Lightweight
Kyle Prepolec
"Killshot"
18-10-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Mateusz Rebecki
68.8% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
54%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision54.4%
KO / TKO23.7%
Submission21.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.1%
Round 234.8%
Round 3+16.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Mateusz Rebecki
Kyle Prepolec
Net striking dominance
Matchup
18%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
16%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mateusz Rebecki
7%
Age
Kyle Prepolec
7%
Age
Mateusz Rebecki
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kyle Prepolec
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mateusz Rebecki
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Kyle Prepolec
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kyle Prepolec
2%
Past prime
Kyle Prepolec
2%
Past prime
Mateusz Rebecki
2%
← pushes toward Mateusz Rebecki pushes toward Kyle Prepolec →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mateusz Rebecki

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L SUB
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Kyle Prepolec

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L SUB
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Southpaw