Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
15-2-0
VS
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30-5-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
78.3%
21.7%
Joshua Van
LightGBM
currently viewing
77.9%
22.1%
Joshua Van
Logistic (Core)
82.8%
17.2%
Joshua Van
CatBoost
75.4%
24.6%
Joshua Van
Ensemble
80.8%
19.2%
Joshua Van
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Joshua Van
Alexandre Pantoja
20%
12%
11%
5%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Joshua Van
pushes toward Alexandre Pantoja →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Joshua Van
Win Streak
7
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
13.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
165 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Alexandre Pantoja
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
13.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
SUB
W
SUB
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Joshua Van
ADVANTAGE
Alexandre Pantoja
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate