Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

Joshua Van

"The Fearless"

15-2-0

VS

2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Flyweight

Alexandre Pantoja

"The Cannibal"

30-5-0

What Every Model Says

Logistic (Core)

market-margin__xgb-full

No Age · CatBoost

No Age · Ensemble

No Age · LightGBM

No Age · Logistic (Core)

No Age · XGBoost

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

With Odds · CatBoost

With Odds · Ensemble

With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing

With Odds · Logistic (Core)

With Odds · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

56%

Decision

31%

KO / TKO

13%

Submission

Decision56.0%

KO / TKO30.6%

Submission13.4%

If it's a finish, which round

Round 133.7%

Round 227.9%

Round 3+38.4%

A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 44% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.

Why LightGBM leans this way

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Experience edge (total fights)

Matchup

13%

Age

Joshua Van

9%

Net striking dominance

Matchup

8%

Market opening prob diff

Matchup

7%

Age edge (significant gap)

Matchup

5%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Joshua Van

5%

Age

Alexandre Pantoja

5%

Market line movement diff

Matchup

4%

Fights in last 2 years

Joshua Van

4%

Avg takedowns attempted

Alexandre Pantoja

3%

Striking accuracy

Joshua Van

3%

Striking defense

Joshua Van

3%

Strikes absorbed/min

Joshua Van

3%

UFC fights on record

Joshua Van

2%

← pushes toward Joshua Van pushes toward Alexandre Pantoja →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.