Kennedy Nzechukwu
"Chosen"
14-6-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev
14-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Kennedy Nzechukwu 'Chosen'
69.1% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
37%
Decision
49%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision37.0%
KO / TKO48.7%
Submission14.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.0%
Round 231.6%
Round 3+12.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Shamil Gaziev
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.65
17%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Shamil Gaziev +1.14
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 28
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kennedy Nzechukwu -1.25
7%
Age
Shamil Gaziev 36.5 yrs
6%
Age
Kennedy Nzechukwu 34.2 yrs
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.06
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1.13
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +4
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Shamil Gaziev 1.91
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 8%
3%
Reach edge
Matchup +12.7 cm
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Shamil Gaziev 4.21
3%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup +0.10
3%
← pushes toward Kennedy Nzechukwu pushes toward Shamil Gaziev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
8.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
D DEC
L SUB
W KO
W KO
L DEC
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 236 lbs
Reach: 211 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Shamil Gaziev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
W KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kennedy Nzechukwu
ADVANTAGE
Shamil Gaziev
Striking Accuracy
48.5%
+3.9%
44.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.60
+0.89
2.71
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.44
+0.76
4.21
Striking Defense
51.9%
+3.3%
48.6%
Takedown Accuracy
38.4%
+1.1%
37.3%
Takedown Defense
73.5%
+7.9%
65.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.21
+0.01
0.19
Avg Control Time (sec)
75.57
+21.67
97.24
Strikes Per Round
17.00
+3.13
13.87
Head Strike %
71.4%
+5.2%
66.2%
Body Strike %
20.8%
+2.3%
23.1%
Leg Strike %
7.8%
+2.9%
10.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
20.0%