Kennedy Nzechukwu
"Chosen"
14-6-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev
14-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Kennedy Nzechukwu 'Chosen'
69.2% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Shamil Gaziev won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:20
How It Ends
37%
Decision
50%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision36.9%
KO / TKO49.6%
Submission13.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.2%
Round 231.8%
Round 3+12.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Shamil Gaziev
Net striking dominance
Matchup
17%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Shamil Gaziev
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kennedy Nzechukwu
7%
Age
Shamil Gaziev
6%
Age
Kennedy Nzechukwu
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kennedy Nzechukwu
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Shamil Gaziev
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
4%
Reach edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Shamil Gaziev
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Kennedy Nzechukwu pushes toward Shamil Gaziev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
D DEC
L SUB
W KO
W KO
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 236 lbs
Reach: 211 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Shamil Gaziev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox