Kennedy Nzechukwu
"Chosen"
14-6-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev
14-2-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Kennedy Nzechukwu 'Chosen'
67.8% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Shamil Gaziev won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:20
How It Ends
37%
Decision
50%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision36.9%
KO / TKO49.6%
Submission13.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.2%
Round 231.8%
Round 3+12.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Shamil Gaziev
Net striking dominance
Matchup
15%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Shamil Gaziev
7%
Age
Shamil Gaziev
7%
Age
Kennedy Nzechukwu
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kennedy Nzechukwu
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kennedy Nzechukwu
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Shamil Gaziev
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Shamil Gaziev
3%
Southpaw stance edge
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Kennedy Nzechukwu
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Shamil Gaziev
3%
← pushes toward Kennedy Nzechukwu pushes toward Shamil Gaziev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
D DEC
L SUB
W KO
W KO
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 236 lbs
Reach: 211 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Shamil Gaziev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox