Rizvan Kuniev
12-3-1
VS
2026-07-25
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Heavyweight
Regina Malpica
"Kill Bill"
7-0-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Regina Malpica 'Kill Bill'
57.1% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
49%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision49.2%
KO / TKO39.4%
Submission11.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.4%
Round 232.7%
Round 3+18.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Rizvan Kuniev
Regina Malpica
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
17%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rizvan Kuniev
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Age
Rizvan Kuniev
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Age
Regina Malpica
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Regina Malpica
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rizvan Kuniev
4%
Fights per year
Rizvan Kuniev
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Regina Malpica
4%
Head absorption rate
Regina Malpica
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Regina Malpica
3%
Distance strike defense
Rizvan Kuniev
2%
← pushes toward Rizvan Kuniev pushes toward Regina Malpica →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rizvan Kuniev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 240 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Regina Malpica

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A