Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri

Xiong Jingnan

"The Panda"

19-2-0

VS

2026-08-29

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Women's Strawweight

Julia Polastri

"Psycho"

14-5-0

What Every Model Says

Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

71%

Decision

15%

KO / TKO

13%

Submission

Decision71.4%

KO / TKO15.5%

Submission13.2%

If it's a finish, which round

Round 144.7%

Round 235.7%

Round 3+19.6%

A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 29% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.

Why LightGBM leans this way

Xiong Jingnan

Julia Polastri

Age edge (significant gap)

Matchup

20%

Net striking dominance

Matchup

12%

Age

Xiong Jingnan

7%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Xiong Jingnan

5%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Julia Polastri

5%

Age

Julia Polastri

5%

Strikes absorbed/min

Xiong Jingnan

5%

Head-strike accuracy edge

Matchup

4%

Avg takedowns attempted

Julia Polastri

4%

Defensive skill edge

Matchup

3%

Strikes absorbed/min

Julia Polastri

3%

Distance strike defense

Xiong Jingnan

3%

Avg takedowns attempted

Xiong Jingnan

2%

Fights per year

Xiong Jingnan

2%

← pushes toward Xiong Jingnan pushes toward Julia Polastri →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.