JJ Aldrich
14-7-0
VS
Regina Malpica Rivera
"Kill Bill"
5-0-0
Thin UFC data
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
44.9%
55.1%
Regina Malpica Rivera
LightGBM
46.5%
53.5%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Logistic (Core)
33.8%
66.2%
Regina Malpica Rivera
CatBoost
41.0%
59.0%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Ensemble
currently viewing
42.7%
57.3%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
72%
Decision
16%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 28%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
JJ Aldrich
Regina Malpica Rivera
16%
8%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward JJ Aldrich
pushes toward Regina Malpica Rivera →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
JJ Aldrich
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Regina Malpica Rivera
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
N/A
Head-to-Head Stats
JJ Aldrich
ADVANTAGE
Regina Malpica Rivera
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate