JJ Aldrich
14-7-0
VS
Regina Malpica Rivera
"Kill Bill"
5-0-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
48.8%
51.2%
Regina Malpica Rivera
LightGBM
42.8%
57.2%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Logistic (Core)
34.1%
65.9%
Regina Malpica Rivera
CatBoost
43.9%
56.1%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Ensemble
43.3%
56.7%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
46.6%
53.4%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
41.4%
58.6%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
45.2%
54.8%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
34.4%
65.6%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
45.9%
54.1%
Regina Malpica Rivera
With Odds · CatBoost
28.9%
71.1%
Regina Malpica Rivera
With Odds · Ensemble
currently viewing
32.5%
67.5%
Regina Malpica Rivera
With Odds · LightGBM
34.1%
65.9%
Regina Malpica Rivera
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
34.2%
65.8%
Regina Malpica Rivera
With Odds · XGBoost
32.0%
68.0%
Regina Malpica Rivera
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
70%
Decision
17%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 30%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
JJ Aldrich
Regina Malpica Rivera
14%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
← pushes toward JJ Aldrich
pushes toward Regina Malpica Rivera →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
JJ Aldrich
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Regina Malpica Rivera
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
N/A