Uros Medic
"The Doctor"
12-3-0
VS
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Welterweight
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
20-5-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Uros Medic 'The Doctor'
75.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
35%
Decision
53%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision35.1%
KO / TKO53.3%
Submission11.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 160.0%
Round 224.7%
Round 3+15.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 65% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Uros Medic
Daniel Rodriguez
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
11%
Age
Daniel Rodriguez
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Uros Medic
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Daniel Rodriguez
6%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Uros Medic
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Uros Medic
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Uros Medic
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Daniel Rodriguez
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Daniel Rodriguez
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Uros Medic
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
← pushes toward Uros Medic pushes toward Daniel Rodriguez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Uros Medic

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
W KO
L KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Daniel Rodriguez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw