Casey O'Neill
"King"
10-2-0
VS
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
12-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
57.3%
42.7%
Casey O'Neill
LightGBM
60.9%
39.1%
Casey O'Neill
Logistic (Core)
78.0%
22.0%
Casey O'Neill
CatBoost
61.7%
38.3%
Casey O'Neill
Ensemble
currently viewing
57.8%
42.2%
Casey O'Neill
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
62%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 38%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Casey O'Neill
Eduarda Moura
14%
12%
11%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Casey O'Neill
pushes toward Eduarda Moura →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Casey O'Neill
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
10.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
DEC
L
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Eduarda Moura
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
13.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Casey O'Neill
ADVANTAGE
Eduarda Moura
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate