Casey O'Neill
"King"
10-2-0
VS
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
12-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
52.9%
47.1%
Casey O'Neill
LightGBM
60.6%
39.4%
Casey O'Neill
Logistic (Core)
77.1%
22.9%
Casey O'Neill
CatBoost
64.7%
35.3%
Casey O'Neill
Ensemble
57.4%
42.6%
Casey O'Neill
market-margin__xgb-full
60.9%
39.1%
Casey O'Neill
No Age · CatBoost
61.3%
38.7%
Casey O'Neill
No Age · Ensemble
53.4%
46.6%
Casey O'Neill
No Age · LightGBM
59.4%
40.6%
Casey O'Neill
No Age · Logistic (Core)
73.7%
26.3%
Casey O'Neill
No Age · XGBoost
54.8%
45.2%
Casey O'Neill
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
63.7%
36.3%
Casey O'Neill
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
59.1%
40.9%
Casey O'Neill
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
59.7%
40.3%
Casey O'Neill
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
76.0%
24.0%
Casey O'Neill
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
57.4%
42.6%
Casey O'Neill
With Odds · CatBoost
63.2%
36.8%
Casey O'Neill
With Odds · Ensemble
57.2%
42.8%
Casey O'Neill
With Odds · LightGBM
57.9%
42.1%
Casey O'Neill
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
77.1%
22.9%
Casey O'Neill
With Odds · XGBoost
currently viewing
55.5%
44.5%
Casey O'Neill
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Casey O'Neill
Eduarda Moura
19%
10%
9%
8%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Casey O'Neill
pushes toward Eduarda Moura →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Casey O'Neill
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
KO
W
DEC
L
SUB
L
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Eduarda Moura
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox