Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
27-9-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
30-11-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Robert Whittaker 'The Reaper'
53.7% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
46%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision45.9%
KO / TKO38.4%
Submission15.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.8%
Round 227.0%
Round 3+17.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 54% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Robert Whittaker
Nikita Krylov
Elo rating edge
Matchup
14%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Age
Nikita Krylov
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nikita Krylov
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
8%
Age
Robert Whittaker
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Robert Whittaker
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Robert Whittaker
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Fights per year
Nikita Krylov
2%
Fights per year
Robert Whittaker
2%
Past prime
Robert Whittaker
2%
Past prime
Nikita Krylov
2%
← pushes toward Robert Whittaker pushes toward Nikita Krylov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Robert Whittaker

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
L SUB
W KO
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Nikita Krylov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
L KO
L KO
W SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox