Back
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-9-1
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Welterweight
Charles Radtke
"Chuck Buffalo"
11-5-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Charles Radtke 'Chuck Buffalo'
65.5% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
34.9% 65.1%
Charles Radtke
LightGBM
35.7% 64.3%
Charles Radtke
Logistic (Core)
49.2% 50.8%
Charles Radtke
CatBoost
42.2% 57.8%
Charles Radtke
Ensemble
32.8% 67.2%
Charles Radtke
No Age · CatBoost
41.8% 58.2%
Charles Radtke
No Age · Ensemble
37.3% 62.7%
Charles Radtke
No Age · LightGBM
40.4% 59.6%
Charles Radtke
No Age · Logistic (Core)
57.2% 42.8%
Stephen Thompson
No Age · XGBoost
35.7% 64.3%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
40.7% 59.3%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
37.1% 62.9%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
34.5% 65.5%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
47.9% 52.1%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
42.1% 57.9%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · CatBoost
44.2% 55.8%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · Ensemble
43.9% 56.1%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · LightGBM
46.9% 53.1%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
49.2% 50.8%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · XGBoost
39.8% 60.2%
Charles Radtke
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision49.9%
KO / TKO34.7%
Submission15.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.6%
Round 227.7%
Round 3+22.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Stephen Thompson
Charles Radtke
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +7.41
21%
Age
Stephen Thompson 43.8 yrs
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.44
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +11
7%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 36
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
5%
Age
Charles Radtke 36.4 yrs
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Stephen Thompson -1.39
5%
Fights per year
Stephen Thompson 1.64
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -12%
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Charles Radtke 2.22
3%
Distance strike defense
Stephen Thompson 57%
2%
Distance strike defense
Charles Radtke 60%
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Charles Radtke 2.83
2%
← pushes toward Stephen Thompson pushes toward Charles Radtke →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Stephen Thompson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
L SUB
W KO
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Charles Radtke

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
8.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W SUB
L KO
W KO
L KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Stephen Thompson
ADVANTAGE
Charles Radtke
Striking Accuracy
47.7%
+2.1%
49.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.59
+1.33
2.26
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.11
+0.89
2.22
Striking Defense
51.6%
+3.6%
55.1%
Takedown Accuracy
33.4%
+12.0%
45.4%
Takedown Defense
59.9%
+6.5%
66.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.05
0.22
Avg Control Time (sec)
57.92
+65.93
123.85
Strikes Per Round
17.07
+4.59
12.48
Head Strike %
64.0%
+7.4%
71.4%
Body Strike %
22.7%
+7.7%
15.0%
Leg Strike %
13.3%
+0.3%
13.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%