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Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-9-1
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Welterweight
Charles Radtke
"Chuck Buffalo"
11-5-0
WITH ODDS · LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Charles Radtke 'Chuck Buffalo'
50.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
34.9% 65.1%
Charles Radtke
LightGBM
35.7% 64.3%
Charles Radtke
Logistic (Core)
49.2% 50.8%
Charles Radtke
CatBoost
42.2% 57.8%
Charles Radtke
Ensemble
32.8% 67.2%
Charles Radtke
No Age · CatBoost
41.8% 58.2%
Charles Radtke
No Age · Ensemble
37.3% 62.7%
Charles Radtke
No Age · LightGBM
40.4% 59.6%
Charles Radtke
No Age · Logistic (Core)
57.2% 42.8%
Stephen Thompson
No Age · XGBoost
35.7% 64.3%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
40.7% 59.3%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
37.1% 62.9%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
34.5% 65.5%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
47.9% 52.1%
Charles Radtke
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
42.1% 57.9%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · CatBoost
44.2% 55.8%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · Ensemble
43.9% 56.1%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · LightGBM
46.9% 53.1%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · Logistic (Core) currently viewing
49.2% 50.8%
Charles Radtke
With Odds · XGBoost
39.8% 60.2%
Charles Radtke
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision49.9%
KO / TKO34.7%
Submission15.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.6%
Round 227.7%
Round 3+22.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Stephen Thompson
Charles Radtke
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +7.41
15%
Age
Stephen Thompson 43.8 yrs
10%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.44
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +11
6%
Age
Charles Radtke 36.4 yrs
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Stephen Thompson -1.39
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 36
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Charles Radtke 2.22
3%
Fights per year
Stephen Thompson 1.64
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Stephen Thompson 1.82
3%
Avg control time
Charles Radtke 123.85
2%
Head absorption rate
Stephen Thompson 59%
2%
Last 2 avg fight time
Charles Radtke 884.50
2%
← pushes toward Stephen Thompson pushes toward Charles Radtke →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Stephen Thompson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
L SUB
W KO
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Charles Radtke

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
8.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W SUB
L KO
W KO
L KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Stephen Thompson
ADVANTAGE
Charles Radtke
Striking Accuracy
47.7%
+2.1%
49.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.59
+1.33
2.26
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.11
+0.89
2.22
Striking Defense
51.6%
+3.6%
55.1%
Takedown Accuracy
33.4%
+12.0%
45.4%
Takedown Defense
59.9%
+6.5%
66.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.05
0.22
Avg Control Time (sec)
57.92
+65.93
123.85
Strikes Per Round
17.07
+4.59
12.48
Head Strike %
64.0%
+7.4%
71.4%
Body Strike %
22.7%
+7.7%
15.0%
Leg Strike %
13.3%
+0.3%
13.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%