Marcio Barbosa
"Ticoto"
17-2-0
VS
Ryan Kuse
"3rd Street Savage"
9-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
50.5%
49.5%
Marcio Barbosa
LightGBM
49.7%
50.3%
Ryan Kuse
Logistic (Core)
60.5%
39.5%
Marcio Barbosa
CatBoost
currently viewing
52.1%
47.9%
Marcio Barbosa
Ensemble
54.1%
45.9%
Marcio Barbosa
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Marcio Barbosa
Ryan Kuse
22%
10%
7%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Marcio Barbosa
pushes toward Ryan Kuse →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Marcio Barbosa
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Ryan Kuse
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
Orthodox