Marcio Barbosa
"Ticoto"
17-2-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Featherweight
Ryan Kuse
"3rd Street Savage"
9-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Ryan Kuse '3rd Street Savage'
50.3% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Marcio Barbosa 'Ticoto' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47
How It Ends
44%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
Decision43.5%
KO / TKO35.8%
Submission20.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.3%
Round 230.9%
Round 3+15.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Marcio Barbosa
Ryan Kuse
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
24%
Avg takedowns attempted
Marcio Barbosa
10%
Age
Marcio Barbosa
9%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ryan Kuse
4%
Head absorption rate
Ryan Kuse
4%
Fights per year
Ryan Kuse
3%
Distance strike defense
Marcio Barbosa
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Marcio Barbosa
3%
Elo rating
Ryan Kuse
3%
Career head strikes absorbed
Marcio Barbosa
2%
Round 1 strike output
Ryan Kuse
2%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Marcio Barbosa pushes toward Ryan Kuse →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Marcio Barbosa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ryan Kuse

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: Orthodox