Vlasto Cepo
"El Chapo"
14-3-0
VS
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina
"The RGV Bad Boy"
7-5-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Vlasto Cepo 'El Chapo'
57.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
37%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision37.2%
KO / TKO41.1%
Submission21.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.6%
Round 229.2%
Round 3+14.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Vlasto Cepo
Gilbert Urbina
Elo rating edge
Matchup
22%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
14%
Age
Gilbert Urbina
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gilbert Urbina
5%
Age
Vlasto Cepo
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Vlasto Cepo
4%
Fights per year
Vlasto Cepo
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Distance strike defense
Gilbert Urbina
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Fights per year
Gilbert Urbina
3%
Past prime
Gilbert Urbina
2%
Distance strike defense
Vlasto Cepo
2%
Knockdowns absorbed/fight
Gilbert Urbina
2%
← pushes toward Vlasto Cepo pushes toward Gilbert Urbina →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Vlasto Cepo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Gilbert Urbina

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
L SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox