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Vlasto Cepo
"El Chapo"
14-3-0
VS
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina
"The RGV Bad Boy"
7-5-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Vlasto Cepo 'El Chapo'
56.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
60.7% 39.3%
Vlasto Cepo
LightGBM
58.5% 41.5%
Vlasto Cepo
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
56.9% 43.1%
Vlasto Cepo
CatBoost
57.3% 42.7%
Vlasto Cepo
Ensemble
57.0% 43.0%
Vlasto Cepo
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
37%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision37.2%
KO / TKO41.1%
Submission21.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.6%
Round 229.2%
Round 3+14.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Vlasto Cepo
Gilbert Urbina
Elo rating edge
Matchup
14%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gilbert Urbina
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Last 2 avg fight time
Gilbert Urbina
6%
Age
Vlasto Cepo
6%
Age
Gilbert Urbina
5%
Fights per year
Vlasto Cepo
4%
Elo rating
Gilbert Urbina
4%
Distance strike defense
Gilbert Urbina
4%
Head absorption rate
Gilbert Urbina
3%
Elo rating
Vlasto Cepo
3%
Fights per year
Gilbert Urbina
3%
Round 1 strike output
Vlasto Cepo
3%
Avg control time
Gilbert Urbina
3%
← pushes toward Vlasto Cepo pushes toward Gilbert Urbina →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Vlasto Cepo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Gilbert Urbina

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
L SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox