Jack Jenkins
"Phar"
14-4-0
VS
Sean Woodson
"The Sniper"
13-2-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
47.8%
52.2%
Sean Woodson
LightGBM
48.9%
51.1%
Sean Woodson
Logistic (Core)
47.3%
52.7%
Sean Woodson
CatBoost
43.2%
56.8%
Sean Woodson
Ensemble
43.1%
56.9%
Sean Woodson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
46.1%
53.9%
Sean Woodson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
45.7%
54.3%
Sean Woodson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
currently viewing
54.3%
45.7%
Jack Jenkins
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
48.2%
51.8%
Sean Woodson
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
53.2%
46.8%
Jack Jenkins
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Jack Jenkins
Sean Woodson
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Jack Jenkins
pushes toward Sean Woodson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Jack Jenkins
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
SUB
W
KO
L
KO
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Switch
Sean Woodson
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
KO
W
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox